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Pork Shortage Caused by African Swine Fever Might Last Until 2020

As of June 28, African swine fever had spread to 60 provinces and cities and resulted in the culling of three million pigs, or 10% of the total number of pigs in Vietnam.

According to a recent report by Ipsos Bussiness Consulting, the outbreak will result in a 500,000-ton shortage of pork from July this year to February 2020, which also happens to be around the time of the Tet holiday, VnExpress reports. This constitutes 20% of of the total market demand for pork in Vietnam.

While demand for pork is on the decline in general, the report states that the drop in supply will be too severe to balance out. Small livestock farmers will be most heavily affected by the outbreak and subsequent shortages.

In an attempt to combat the impact of African swine fever, the government recently issued a reimbursement rate for pork producers affected by the disease. The rates for individuals and family-run farms are as follows: VND25,000 per kilogram of pork from piglets or pigs farmed for meat and VND30,000 per kilogram of pork from breeding pigs.

The reimbursement rates for small-scale businesses will be lower: VND8,000 per kilogram for piglets and pigs raised for meat; VND10,000 per kilogram for breeding pigs.

Ipsos predicts that four clear market trends will emerge as a result of the outbreak: an increase in imports, prices, demand for branded pork and demand for other types of meat.

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